Regional diesel trends shape freight outlook

Escalating military activity focused on Iran has introduced questions about the potential impact on fuel prices. According to energy industry experts, the key variables that could push oil (and, by extension, U.S. diesel) higher include whether shipping disruptions materially reduce physical oil supply, how long disruptions persist, and whether replacement supply (including strategic releases of reserves) can be mobilized fast enough to avoid a tighter global balance.

Experts also note the duration of disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is the swing factor that could amplify pricing pressure.

For trucking, higher diesel prices matter because fuel is a major operating input. The American Trucking Research Institute’s benchmarking shows fuel at about 21% of total cost per mile. As the September 2025 Edge Report explained, fuel is predominantly a pass-through expense but can still impact carrier operating costs, including their expenses for deadhead miles.

The national U.S. average diesel price was $3.72 per gallon in February 2026, up from $3.52 in January and also higher than the February 2025 price per gallon ($3.68). Sustained oil-market volatility could keep upward pressure on fuel surcharges and all in freight transportation rates for shippers.

Higher diesel prices may also intensify stress on carrier margins, accelerate capacity exits, and shift market share toward fleets with better fuel efficiency and stronger cost control. Historically, fuel spikes have often coincided with waves of carrier failures, reinforcing why diesel price risk is a key watch item for U.S. shippers.

For international ocean and air carriers, conflict-driven crude price increases are already raising fuel costs. For air carriers, taking longer routes to avoid restricted airspace leads to increased fuel burn. For ocean carriers, diversions around the Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and fuel consumption, supporting higher fuel surcharges for shippers.

U.S. average diesel price per gallon

The Mexico average diesel price per liter of fuel has been stable, hovering near 26 pesos for over a year, yet decreasing slightly each week in 2026.

Mexico average diesel price per gallon

The national average diesel price in Canada, shown here in Canadian cents per liter, has increased sequentially nearly every week in 2026.

Canada average diesel price per gallon

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