Global air freight networks under strain

Middle East airspace disruptions tighten global air networks   

Airspace restrictions across the Gulf region are disrupting one of the world’s most critical air transit corridors, limiting access to traditional east-west routings and forcing carriers to adjust schedules, reroute flights, or suspend select services.

Operations at major Gulf hubs remain closed or heavily constrained, with limited capacity prioritized for non-commercial movements, such as humanitarian relief. This has materially reduced throughput at key transit points and further constrained connectivity across the region.

Because Gulf-based carriers play a central role in global air freight networks—not only for Middle East-origin cargo, but for flows connecting Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America—the effects extend well beyond the region itself. An estimated 12–13% of global air freight capacity has been affected by reduced Gulf operations and closed airspace.

Cargo that would typically transit through hubs such as Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Dubai is being pushed into alternate gateways across China, India, and Southeast Asia, adding friction just as freight ramps up after the Lunar New Year holiday.

Longer routings are extending transit times, reducing payloads, and lowering schedule reliability. At the same time, displaced Gulf cargo is affecting capacity into Europe and North America, tightening global air networks earlier in March than typical seasonal patterns—particularly for time-sensitive and high-value freight.

Another risk affecting routing is emerging: escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This situation adds more uncertainty for India-origin routings that already face airspace restrictions. 

These dynamics are occurring at a time when dedicated freighter capacity remains structurally constrained. Aircraft availability remains tight, limiting the system’s ability to absorb uneven demand and reducing routing flexibility when disruptions occur. Transit times are becoming less predictable and cost pressures tied to longer routes, higher fuel burn, and elevated operating complexity are increasingly showing up in the form of surcharges and deviation-related fees.

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Air freight in the Year of the Fire Horse: Navigating March and beyond

The Lunar New Year holiday period has passed, and as manufacturing activity across Asia resumes, the air freight market is entering one of its more consequential transition points of the year. This year marks the Year of the Fire Horse—a rare 60-year cycle often associated with momentum, rapid change, and the importance of timing. That framing is fitting for a post-holiday environment where conditions are less about sustained tightness or softness, and more about when demand returns, how quickly it overlaps, and which capacity types are available when it does.

A market shaped by timing

The early weeks of March have historically offered a brief period of post-holiday normalization, and early indicators suggest 2026 is following a similar pattern. Capacity is generally more available as freighter schedules are reinstated and production restarts unevenly across Asia. Spot rates often reflect this seasonal pause, particularly on Asia–Europe and Asia–LATAM lanes, as networks reset after the holiday period.

This window, however, is typically short lived. Production ramp-ups across Asian manufacturing centers tend to accelerate through mid-March, with some facilities increasing output to recover ground lost during the shutdown.

By late March, the overlap of quarter-end shipping activity, Easter-related ecommerce flows, and the seasonal perishables peak out of South America—including flowers, seeds, and fresh produce from Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay—may place simultaneous pressure on capacity across multiple lanes. When these drivers converge, the impact is less about a single “peak season” and more about compressed volatility, where short periods of tightness can develop quickly.

Understanding the current capacity picture

Across Europe–North America and Asia–Europe lanes, pricing has been influenced largely by the return of passenger flights, which add cargo space underneath the aircraft. As airlines prepare for their summer schedules, this additional space is beginning to factor into how the market is priced, particularly on long haul routes tied to leisure travel.

At the same time, not all air cargo capacity behaves the same way. Dedicated cargo aircraft remain in relatively short supply due to aircraft shortages and delays in freighter conversions. This limits how quickly capacity can adjust when demand rises, especially if volumes return unevenly or with little notice. As a result, availability can tighten quickly on specific routes even when overall market conditions appear balanced.

Not a surge—a snapback

This month’s most decision-relevant signal is not a broad demand surge, but how unevenly volume is re-entering the network. Air networks rarely tighten because global demand rises modestly. They tighten when concentrated flows return quickly and compete for the same routings, schedules, and gateways, or when there’s a significant disruption.

In March, the clearest example is traffic from South Asia. Overall tonnage from this origin is up 7% week over week (w/w), while South Asia–North America chargeable weight is up 12%, indicating corridor-level momentum that outpaces the broader origin trend. That divergence can limit routing and scheduling choices on specific lanes even when capacity appears ample elsewhere.

Lane-level data points to volatility rather than a smooth recovery during the late-February restart. India–North America traffic rose 14% after an 8% dip during the shutdown window, a pattern consistent with deferred shipments re-entering the market. Bangladesh–North America stood apart, increasing 17% after a prior 10% gain, indicating a more sustained two week build rather than a one-time release. These distinctions matter operationally: snapbacks often normalize once deferred volumes clear, while multiweek gains can influence how quickly capacity is allocated.

In the Middle East, cancelled flights, airports operating minimally and airspace restrictions across Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and parts of the broader Gulf region have added a new constraint to these lanes, further redirecting cargo flows through Indian and Asian gateways that are already normalizing post-Lunar New Year.

Europe bound movement from South Asia is positive but more moderate, up 6% w/w. The takeaway is not that one destination is tight and another soft, but that corridor specific momentum is what drives real world outcomes—shorter booking windows, fewer routing options, and brief periods of rate sensitivity—often before global averages reflect the shift.

Two additional signals help contextualize this environment. India’s overall exports—goods and services combined—were up 13.17% year over year (y/y) entering 2026, reinforcing that outbound trade activity remains firm even as import growth has widened the trade deficit. In Latin America, demand for March and April is tracking at approximately 2–3% y/y growth, supported by perishables and selective technology and ecommerce flows. Neither point to a spike, but modest baseline growth can still coexist with lane specific tightness when volatility concentrates into a small set of gateways simultaneously.

When timing matters most

In the near term, trade policy developments are also influencing shipment timing, reinforcing that short-term demand patterns may reflect calendar and regulatory effects rather than a shift in underlying trade fundamentals. For more detail on what is—and is not—changing in the tariff landscape, see the Trade Policy & Customs section of this report.

The Year of the Fire Horse is traditionally associated with speed, momentum, and the need to act decisively when conditions align. In air freight terms, that does not imply constant urgency, it implies awareness of timing. March and April are shaping up to reward shippers that recognize when capacity is briefly more available, and are prepared for how quickly conditions can shift once overlapping demand cycles converge. The question is not whether the market is broadly “tight” or “soft,” but whether supply chains are positioned to move when the window is open, and protected when it closes.

Planning ahead

• Use the early March window deliberately
  Post-Lunar New Year normalization is creating a short period of improved availability on several Asia-origin lanes. Shippers with flexibility in shipment timing may find more routing options and steadier pricing early in the month than later in March.
• Plan for overlap risk later in the quarter
  Quarter-end activity, Easter-related ecommerce demand, and South America’s perishables peak are expected to converge toward late March. Even without a broad demand surge, this overlap can tighten conditions quickly on specific lanes.
• Retest assumptions as disruption effects fade
  As weather-related noise clears, underlying structural limits—especially freighter availability—are becoming more visible. Lanes that appeared open during disruptions may not remain so as markets normalize.

Notable shifts this month

Asia–Europe volumes are likely to remain uneven as timing effects unwind

Front-loading ahead of Lunar New Year and reactive shipping tied to tariff discussions have distorted recent Asia–Europe volume signals. As factories complete restarts over the coming weeks, activity is expected to normalize gradually rather than all at once.

The key indicator to watch is whether volumes spread evenly through March or reconcentrate around specific weeks, which would increase short-term volatility even if overall demand remains stable.

Europe-linked lanes may test seasonal softness assumptions later in March

Market expectations are beginning to reflect the historical pattern of additional passenger-flight cargo space returning as airlines transition toward summer schedules. Whether this translates into sustained rate softness will depend on how quickly demand builds into late March and April. If demand accelerates more slowly than capacity additions, softer conditions could persist; if demand absorbs that space quickly, recent expectations may need to be reassessed.

South Asia lanes are positioned to tighten sooner

Recent w/w gains from India and Bangladesh indicate momentum that has extended beyond single-week rebounds. As deferred volumes continue to clear and export activity remains firm, these lanes may see tighter conditions earlier than other Asia-origin lanes that are still normalizing post-holiday.

Monitoring week to week consistency, rather than one-off spikes, will be critical to assessing how durable this recovery proves to be.

Latin America’s directional split is expected to persist into April

Northbound capacity out of South America is likely to remain influenced by the seasonal perishables cycle as Easter approaches, supporting firmer export conditions. In contrast, southbound lanes—particularly from Miami—may continue to offer more flexibility as scheduled capacity comes online. This directional imbalance is expected to remain a defining feature of the market through the early part of Q2.

As temporary disruptions fade, true capacity limits will become more visible

With weather-related disruptions in North America easing, market conditions are increasingly being shaped by structural factors rather than operational noise. Limited availability of dedicated cargo aircraft means the system has less ability to absorb sudden, uneven demand returns. As a result, corridors that appeared well supplied during disruption periods may tighten more quickly once demand normalizes.

Key takeaways

• Be ready to use the early March window where timing allows
  Post-Lunar New Year normalization is creating a short period of improved availability on several Asia-origin lanes. For shipments with flexibility, early-month movement may offer more routing options before late-March demand overlaps begin to compress conditions.
• Plan for overlap risk later in the month, even without a demand surge
  Quarter-end activity, Easter-related ecommerce demand, and South America’s perishables season are expected to converge toward late March. Monitoring when these flows begin to overlap will be more important than tracking any single demand driver in isolation.
• Account for differences in how capacity responds
  Passenger-flight cargo space and dedicated cargo aircraft do not adjust to demand at the same pace. Lanes that rely more heavily on freighters may become constrained sooner when volumes reenter the market in bursts.

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