Why advanced intermodal planning may pay off

North American intermodal market remains in a holding pattern

Through the first five weeks of 2026, total domestic intermodal units declined by 3.25%, according to Association of American Railroads data. Year-over-year (y/y) comparisons are distorted by tariff-driven frontloading that inflated volumes during the same period last year. Near-term trend analysis was also complicated by widespread winter weather disrupting what appeared to be underlying momentum.

But looking ahead, modest demand improvement is expected in March. Intermodal interest may strengthen during the second half of 2026, provided that broader truckload market conditions remain constrained.

2026 seasonal positioning

Following a muted 2025 high season, southern California operations have returned to more typical conditions as the U.S.-China trade environment stabilises. Increased tariff clarity is expected to support a return to normalised seasonal patterns. This environment creates a favourable window for shippers to reassess West Coast intermodal strategies, with early-year volume commitments positioning shippers for improved coverage and rate stability ahead of high season.

Nationwide indicators suggest renewed interest in intermodal transportation. While the recovery remains gradual, planning as if it will be another flat year may introduce risk. Shippers entering bid renewal cycles should anticipate a more balanced market environment in the third and fourth quarters. Securing rail pricing earlier in 2026 may offer protection against rising transportation costs across the broader supply chain.

Intermodal spot market dynamics

Railroad carriers continue to offer competitive spot pricing, which is expected to remain relatively stable through the second quarter of 2026.

In contrast, truckload markets are projected to experience high-single-digit rate increases as early as Q2, while rail pricing is expected to rise at a low-single-digit pace. This widening cost differential is likely to further strengthen the intermodal value proposition.

More shippers have been inquiring about intermodal service between 550 and 1,500 miles, a segment that had shifted toward truckload because of low rates during the prolonged freight downturn. It’s too early to determine if this uptick in intermodal interest reflects a temporary response to winter weather disruptions or the beginning of a sustained mode shift. Monitoring truckload capacity and the potential impact of strict commercial driver’s licence enforcement will be key.

Contracted intermodal pricing for 2026 varies by region

West Coast outbound rates have largely stabilised, with many new contracts commencing 1 April 2026 or later. Other regions are experiencing modest y/y increases of approximately 2-5%, generally consistent with inflation.

Shippers entering 2026 RFP cycles are encouraged to prioritise providers with strong rail relationships to enhance both savings and network resiliency. Intermodal should be positioned as a strategic component of transportation planning rather than solely a contingency option.

Considerations for managing intermodal in 2026:

• Identify lanes where intermodal meets service and transit requirements.
• Evaluate total landed cost rather than linehaul expense alone.
• Implement blended rail and trucking strategies to mitigate volatility.
• Pilot new intermodal lanes early in the year to secure capacity ahead of anticipated truckload rate increases.

Service performance expectations

Class I rail carriers continue to demonstrate strong operational performance. Systemwide improvements include steady train speeds, reduced terminal dwell times, lower locomotive idling and fewer held trains. Recent service disruptions in select regions were primarily weather related rather than structural in nature.

While the intermodal network retains significant latent capacity, precise equipment positioning is expected to remain critical as rail carriers manage shifting demand patterns and regional imbalances.

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