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Peak season pressures tighten air freight capacity globally
Published: Thursday, November 06, 2025 | 08:00 AM CDT
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Asia
Global trends
Asia’s air freight markets continue to experience strong peak season demand, which is expected to persist through December and extend into early January. In the final weeks of October, shippers front-loaded cargo to the United States ahead of a planned November 10 increase in the reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods.
While a deal announced in writing November 1 maintains the tariff at 10% for a year, the frontloading may slightly soften U.S.-bound volumes through mid-November. In contrast, demand to Europe and other destinations remains robust and unaffected by tariff-related shifts.
Capacity constraints are tightening across key trade lanes, extending booking lead times—particularly for time-sensitive cargo. Rates have stayed firm following the post–Golden Week surge, as airlines continue to prioritize high-value and urgent shipments, including electronics and ecommerce products. The upcoming Double Eleven (11/11) shopping event is expected to drive another sharp uptick in ecommerce demand during the second half of November.
Specialized commodities such as pharmaceuticals, cryptocurrency hardware, and artificial intelligence equipment continue to dominate available capacity on U.S.-bound services. Airlines are strategically adjusting capacity and flight networks to capture peak season opportunities while maintaining elevated rate levels throughout the month.
With Chinese New Year falling later this year, on February 17, 2026, the traditional demand cycle is expected to last longer than usual, keeping the market active and rates elevated well into the first quarter.
Regional highlights
Asia to North America
Forecast: Airlines are carefully managing capacity and flight schedules to keep rates high during peak season. At the same time, congestion at major airports, particularly in cargo handling areas, is causing longer ground times and limited availability, making it essential for shippers to secure space well in advance.
Market dynamics: Despite a less sharp November peak, structural demand from tech and pharmaceutical sectors is sustaining high load factors. Ecommerce tied to China’s 11/11 shopping festival will add a fresh wave of outbound volume, tightening capacity further into late November.
At the same time, congestion at major airports—particularly in cargo handling areas—is causing longer ground times, making it essential for shippers to secure space well in advance.
Asia to Europe
Forecast: Demand is expected to stay strong through December and into early January, keeping rates firm across major Asia–Europe lanes. Capacity remains extremely tight, with first-leg space from key origins already booked several days in advance. Shippers should plan at least four to five days ahead, particularly for larger loads, as rate levels are holding steady given the current market environment.
Market dynamics: Following Golden Week, the market rebounded sharply as capacity tightened and rates climbed. Ecommerce continues to be the main driver of demand, fueled by shopping festivals and the year-end retail push. Fashion and high-tech products—typically smaller, high-frequency, time-sensitive shipments—are dominating available uplift.
Limited first-leg space at Asian origins, coupled with reduced belly hold capacity on passenger flights, is intensifying competition. Airlines are prioritizing higher-value and time-critical cargo to maximize yield, leaving general cargo shippers with fewer options and longer lead times.
Recently heightened U.S.–China tariff tensions had been shifting some urgent U.S.-bound shipments through Europe, further straining available capacity. It’s too early to predict how an interim China trade deal announced in writing November 1 may affect this trend. New and expanding trade lanes, particularly those to Northern Europe, are seeing sustained pressure as well.
With Chinese New Year not until February 17, 2026, strong seasonal demand is expected to persist longer than in recent years, keeping the market tight well into the first quarter.
Key takeaways
Shippers moving cargo from Asia to North America should plan capacity needs early to avoid costly delays amid airport congestion and firm rate conditions. Airlines are maintaining tight network control and prioritizing high-yield cargo, making advance booking essential. Expect potential space constraints in the second half of November following the 11/11 ecommerce surge.
Pharmaceutical shippers should consider securing space now to mitigate potential risks from trade tariff uncertainties, while cryptocurrency and AI equipment will continue to dominate capacity on U.S. lanes. Although some traditional peak season volume was front-loaded in late October, specialized cargo demand remains robust.
Shippers moving cargo from Asia to Europe should pre-book at least four to five days in advance, and longer for larger shipments, as space at major Asian origins is already tight. Ongoing ecommerce-driven demand for fashion and technology goods continues to keep rates firm and space limited. With Chinese New Year falling on February 17, 2026, peak season conditions are expected to extend into early Q1 2026, making early planning through January critical for schedule reliability and cost control.
North America
Global trends
The U.S. air export market remains stable and well balanced as November begins. While overall conditions are steady, capacity may tighten on select lanes—particularly to Australia, Singapore, and South America—as seasonal demand builds into late November and early December.
Compared with other regions, the market continues to show minimal rate volatility and sufficient space availability. However, shippers should monitor key lanes for potential tightening, carrier network adjustments, or operational disruptions.
Regional highlights
North America to Europe
Forecast: The Trans-Atlantic eastbound (TAEB) market is expected to remain balanced through the remainder of the quarter, supported by expanded passenger capacity and steady demand. Rates are likely to hold firm, with any upward pressure limited to urgent or oversized freight. Overall, the market remains competitive across U.S.–Europe corridors.
Market dynamics: Consistent eastbound volumes are being sustained by steady flows of industrial components, pharmaceuticals, and retail replenishment, alongside strong uplift from the automotive and electronics sectors. Increased passenger frequencies are improving available belly space, while balanced two-way trade is enhancing network utilization and operational efficiency.
Potential headwinds include passenger airlines adjusting schedules for yield optimization, which could temporarily reduce cargo capacity on select routes. Additionally, softer U.S. export demand, weaker European consumer confidence, or rising fuel and maintenance costs could introduce moderate volatility through the first quarter.
Key takeaways
U.S. shippers should continue proactive planning through the remainder of the quarter to manage potential longer transit times or upward rate pressure. For anticipated demand surges—particularly on lanes to Australia, Singapore, and South America—coordinate bookings early to secure capacity before any tightening occurs.
For eastbound routes, confirm space commitments for recurring shipments to maintain schedule stability and rate consistency. Book early for specialized or oversized cargo and consider premium or expedited services when timing is critical.
Overall market stability supports a favorable environment for forward planning and cost management.
Europe
Global trends
The Trans-Atlantic air cargo market continues to stabilize following a stronger-than-expected summer, with several factors shaping short-term conditions. Demand remains steady, though slightly lower than earlier in the year, and is expected to hold firm through the remainder of peak season.
Capacity remains uneven: Belly hold capacity on passenger flights continues to recover, while freighter availability is constrained by aircraft retirements and delayed deliveries of new dedicated cargo planes. Rates remain elevated with intermittent volatility as carriers navigate uncertain macroeconomic conditions, resulting in a cautious but generally stable outlook across both eastbound and westbound lanes.
Inbound air cargo from Asia has strengthened post–Golden Week, driven by ecommerce replenishment ahead of major shopping festivals and year-end holidays. This rebound is tightening capacity at key European gateways, particularly at major hubs where parcel and express volumes are competing with general cargo for space.
Regional highlights
Europe to North America
Forecast: Trans-Atlantic westbound (TAWB) demand is expected to remain steady through the remainder of peak season, with minor week-to-week fluctuations. Spot rates may ease slightly from summer highs but will likely stay above historical averages. In the medium term, additional passenger capacity could introduce mild downward pressure on rates.
Market dynamics: Steady westbound demand is being supported by seasonal retail and ecommerce replenishment ahead of the holidays, along with sustained movement of high-value, time-sensitive cargo such as pharmaceuticals, fashion, and electronics. Some modal shift from ocean to air persists as shippers prioritize reliability amid schedule disruptions.
Freighter availability remains tight, limiting capacity and maintaining rate pressure. Delays in new aircraft deliveries and early retirements could exacerbate constraints in the near term. Meanwhile, evolving trade policies, geopolitical developments, and potential economic slowdowns in Europe or the U.S. remain key factors to watch, as they could influence both demand patterns and overall rate stability.
Key takeaways
Companies shipping across the Atlantic should focus on proactive capacity management and cost control. While demand remains seasonally strong, underlying capacity constraints continue to limit flexibility.
For westbound routes, secure space early for time-sensitive cargo and diversify routing options or carriers to maintain flexibility during capacity crunches. Monitor rate trends closely and consider forward-buying on key lanes through year end to mitigate cost risk.
For inbound flows from Asia, anticipate sustained capacity pressure at European gateways through December and early January, driven by ecommerce demand for fashion and high-tech products.
Across all directions, leverage flexible intermodal or deferred options to balance cost and transit time for non-urgent cargo. Continue monitoring geopolitical and economic developments that could introduce short-term volatility or alter established trade flows.
South Asia, Middle East, Africa (SAMA)
Global trends
Air freight markets here are showing mixed performance. The India–U.S. corridor has been notably affected by recent tariff measures. Following the imposition of 50% duties on most Indian goods in late August, exports from India to the United States fell sharply. Shipments in September 2025 totaled just $5.5 billion—down 20.3% from August, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline.
The tariffs have weighed most heavily on key export sectors such as textiles, gems, and jewelry. Beginning October 1, the United States also introduced 100% tariffs on branded and patented pharmaceutical products. However, India’s large volume of generic pharmaceutical exports remains exempt and continues to move under normal trade conditions.
In contrast, the India–Europe trade lane continues to perform strongly. Air cargo volumes from India to Europe rose 9% week-over-week in mid-October, pushing total tonnage 11% higher than during the same period last year.
The Indian government is pursuing a bilateral trade pact with the United States and encouraging exporters to diversify into new markets to mitigate ongoing trade disruptions.
Regional highlights
SAMA to North America
Forecast: Demand is expected to remain significantly constrained through the remainder of the quarter as 50% U.S. tariffs on most Indian goods continue to suppress trade flows. Market conditions could improve if bilateral trade negotiations result in partial tariff relief or exemptions for key sectors.
Market dynamics: Indian exports to the United States have declined for four consecutive months, falling 37.5% between May and September—equivalent to more than $3.3 billion in monthly trade value. The tariffs include a 25% component tied to India’s imports of Russian oil, intensifying pressure on several core export sectors. Textiles, gems, and jewelry have been the most severely affected, while electronics and engineering goods have shown relative resilience.
The Indian government continues to pursue trade talks with the U.S. administration but has stated it will not rush to finalize an agreement. In the meantime, exporters are accelerating diversification into alternative markets to offset losses.
SAMA to Europe
Forecast: Demand on India–Europe lanes is expected to remain strong through year end, with volumes continuing to exceed prior year levels. Carriers are adjusting capacity to maintain rate stability, and growth is likely to continue as exporters diversify shipments beyond the United States.
Market dynamics: The India–Europe trade lane has shown robust momentum, with tonnage rising 9% week-over-week in mid-October and total volumes 11% higher than the same period last year. This surge is driven by Indian exporters redirecting cargo from the constrained U.S. market to Europe. Carriers are managing capacity strategically to accommodate elevated demand while maintaining stable rates.
Key takeaways
For Europe-bound shipments, book capacity early to ensure space as carriers adjust to rising volumes redirected from the U.S. market. Shippers should monitor U.S.–India trade negotiations closely, as any progress toward tariff relief could quickly shift demand patterns and restore competitiveness for U.S.-bound cargo.
South America
Global trends
Air freight markets in Central and South America are entering their typical Q4 seasonal surge. Overall demand is up approximately 3% in Q3 compared with the same period last year, driven by North American and European importers.
Southbound shipments are being fueled by strong ecommerce demand, particularly to Colombia and Brazil, as goods are moved closer to end markets ahead of the holidays. Northbound exports are rising with Chile’s berry season approaching in early December, alongside other perishables such as asparagus from Peru and flowers from Colombia and Ecuador for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Booking windows have tightened, averaging five to eight days on most lanes and exceeding two weeks for time-sensitive or high-tech cargo. Spot rates are increasing as capacity becomes constrained during this seasonal surge.
Global supply chain disruptions, including Red Sea shipping challenges, are pushing some cargo to air transport, further tightening capacity. Additionally, U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods are creating short-term uncertainty, with potential negotiations poised to influence trade flows. Congestion at São Paulo’s Guarulhos Airport (GRU) is prompting shipments to shift toward alternative gateways such as Viracopos (VCP) and Recife (REC).
Regional highlights
South America to Asia
Forecast: Peak season demand is expected to remain elevated through December, with booking lead times exceeding two weeks for time-sensitive and high-tech cargo. Rates are likely to stay high for the remainder of the year. Connection delays through European hubs such as Madrid (MAD), Frankfurt (FRA), and Luxembourg (LUX) are anticipated to continue.
Market dynamics: Sustained peak-season demand—driven by Black Friday later this month and Christmas in December—is putting pressure on Asia-bound lanes. Time-sensitive and high-tech cargo is facing particularly tight capacity as carriers prioritize these shipments. Pricing pressure is further intensified by the fruit export peak season in Brazil, which has already prompted carriers to increase rates.
Many Brazil-to-Asia shipments transit through European hubs, where operational delays are currently being reported at MAD, FRA, and LUX. Under these conditions, shippers may find fixed-rate programs more predictable than spot-market bookings, helping to manage timing and costs more effectively.
South America to North America
Forecast: Demand to the United States and Mexico is expected to remain strong through the end of the year, with booking windows averaging five to eight days. Northbound perishable volumes will rise sharply as Chile’s berry season begins in early December, alongside asparagus from Peru and flowers from Colombia and Ecuador for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Spot rates are likely to continue increasing during peak season. Smaller shipments (under 500 kg) will remain relatively easier to schedule. Market conditions could improve if the United States and Brazil finalize tariff negotiations.
Market dynamics: Peak-season retail replenishment is driving elevated northbound volumes, with temperature controlled capacity particularly in demand for perishable goods. Chilean berries, Peruvian asparagus, and flowers from Colombia and Ecuador are all competing for limited cold-chain space, intensifying capacity constraints.
Recent U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods have disrupted cargo planning, prompting schedule adjustments and highlighting the importance of agile supply chains. Ongoing congestion at GRU, caused by high cargo volumes and limited handling capacity, is leading carriers to redirect shipments to alternative hubs such as VCP and REC.
Under these conditions, fixed-rate contracts can provide greater predictability and stability than spot-market bookings, helping shippers manage costs and ensure timely delivery despite operational challenges.
South America to Europe
Forecast: General cargo volumes are expected to grow steadily through the quarter, supporting moderate rate increases on key lanes. Demand for perishables will remain strong through year end, with carriers adding extra flights and capacity to maintain service reliability.
Market dynamics: Expanded carrier services are supporting growth, with Lufthansa adding medium-sized aircraft on routes from Rio de Janeiro (GIG) to Munich (MUC), increasing capacity for Europe-bound shipments.
The perishables season for mangoes, grapes, and other fruits is creating high competition for flight slots, requiring careful planning and specialized temperature controlled handling. U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods are redirecting fruit exports that would normally move to North America toward European markets, amplifying demand further.
New routing options, such as Azul’s REC to Porto (OPO) service, provide exporters in Northeast Brazil alternatives while alleviating congestion at GRU. VCP remains the primary gateway for central Brazil, maintaining strong operational performance and helping sustain overall throughput.
South America to South Asia, Middle East, Africa
Forecast: Capacity to Middle Eastern destinations will remain tight through the quarter due to ongoing Red Sea disruptions. Slot availability is limited, and rates are expected to stay elevated through the end of the year.
Market dynamics: Disruptions in the Red Sea are forcing some cargo to shift from ocean to air, increasing pressure on Middle Eastern carriers already handling peak season volumes. With diverted maritime cargo competing alongside traditional air shipments, available flight slots are scarce, driving pricing volatility and reinforcing capacity constraints. These conditions are expected to persist as long as Red Sea disruptions continue, requiring careful planning for space and scheduling.
Key takeaways
Shippers should plan for sustained fourth quarter activity across Central and South America. Southbound imports driven by ecommerce into Colombia and Brazil are adding pressure alongside traditional export peaks. Consider securing bookings now, particularly for critical cargo on fixed-rate terms, to manage capacity constraints and potential rate volatility through year end.
For northbound perishable exports including Chilean berries (starting early December), Peruvian asparagus, and flowers from Colombia and Ecuador, book now with carriers offering temperature controlled capacity to avoid delays during the holiday season. Smaller shipments under 500 kg to the United States and Mexico remain well-suited for spot market bookings, providing flexibility and competitive pricing.
Consider alternative hubs such as VCP and REC to bypass congestion at GRU. Build secondary routing plans and factor in potential delays when scheduling shipments through GRU to ensure timely delivery.
Advance bookings with South American and European carriers are suggested for perishables and pharmaceuticals. While Azul and Gol continue to expand regional connectivity, near-term capacity improvements are limited.
Oceania
Global trends
Air freight activity in the fourth quarter is generally subdued, with import lanes showing only modest peak season demand. With winter beginning in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and Asia, airlines have added passenger flights to meet the Southern Hemisphere’s summer travel demand, particularly to Australia. This seasonal schedule increase has boosted belly cargo capacity on key routes from major origins, including the U.S. West Coast (USWC) and Asia, to Australia’s eastern seaboard.
The expanded capacity is also helping accommodate conversion cargo—shipments shifted from ocean to air due to urgency, delays, or ocean service disruptions. Rates and services from major markets remain stable, while export activity is experiencing seasonal strength as the Southwest Pacific stone fruit harvest gets underway, driving higher demand to both Asian and regional destinations. Despite the increased movement, rates remain steady for this time of year.
Dedicated freighter capacity remains limited. While additional belly space helps maintain stable rates, shipments requiring freighter service continue to face tight availability and higher costs.
Key takeaways
Oceania importers can take advantage of ample passenger belly capacity from key origins—including the USWC and Asia—providing stable rates and opportunities to move cargo that might otherwise ship by ocean. Shipments requiring dedicated freighter service should be booked early, as space is limited and rates remain higher than for belly cargo.
Exporters of Southwest Pacific stone fruit should secure capacity early during the seasonal harvest, especially for freighter shipments of perishables or other sensitive cargo.
Overall, rates are stable for this time of year. Soft market conditions and expanded passenger capacity create a favorable environment for importers, while exporters benefit from predictable rates but must plan ahead to navigate limited freighter availability.